Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 October 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the
period, a C4 at 14/0230Z, occurred from a region just beyond the
northeast limb. New flux emergence was observed in the northeast
quadrant and was numbered Region 1592 (N23E20). An asymmetric halo
CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/0048Z.
Correlation with STEREO B EUVI and COR2 imagery determined it was a
backside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for an isolated M-class flare during the forecast
period (15-17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An
isolated minor storm period was observed during the 14/0000-0300Z
period. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, declined
from approximately 590 km/s to 490 km/s while the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on
day 1 (15 October) as effects from the coronal hole high speed
stream wane. On days 2-3 (16-17 October), quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 132 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 028/052 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 011/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 15% | 15% |
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