Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 October 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Oct 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period, a C4 at 14/0230Z, occurred from a region just beyond the northeast limb. New flux emergence was observed in the northeast quadrant and was numbered Region 1592 (N23E20). An asymmetric halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 14/0048Z. Correlation with STEREO B EUVI and COR2 imagery determined it was a backside event.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an isolated M-class flare during the forecast period (15-17 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. An isolated minor storm period was observed during the 14/0000-0300Z period. Solar wind speed, measured at the ACE spacecraft, declined from approximately 590 km/s to 490 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled with a chance for active periods on day 1 (15 October) as effects from the coronal hole high speed stream wane. On days 2-3 (16-17 October), quiet to unsettled conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Oct 132
  Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        14 Oct 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  028/052
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Oct  014/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  011/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%15%15%

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