Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 July 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1526 (S18E39) produced the largest event of the period, a C1 x-ray flare at 21/2324Z. The other regions on the disk remained stable and quiet. Two new, yet to be numbered regions, rotated onto the visible disk early in the period. Both regions appear to have sunspots, however SWPC forecasters are awaiting more data.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three days (23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods for the next three days (23-25 July), as a coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 094
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  095/100/105
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  013/015-012/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm35%35%30%
Major-severe storm35%35%25%

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