Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 July 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24
hours. Region 1526 (S18E39) produced the largest event of the
period, a C1 x-ray flare at 21/2324Z. The other regions on the disk
remained stable and quiet. Two new, yet to be numbered regions,
rotated onto the visible disk early in the period. Both regions
appear to have sunspots, however SWPC forecasters are awaiting more
data.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels with a chance for C-class events for the next three
days (23-25 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active
periods for the next three days (23-25 July), as a coronal hole high
speed stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 094 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 013/015-012/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
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