Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 June 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1513 (N17E17) produced two impulsive M1 flares at 30/1252Z and 30/1832Z. Region 1514 (S15E15) produced several C-class events during the period. Region 1515 (S16E30) continued to grow and is now an Ekc-type region with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration and an area of 380 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares for the next three days (01-03 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was active during the past 24 hours due to effects from the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) that arrived in advance of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Increased solar wind speeds, temperature and density were observed at the ACE spacecraft around 30/0200Z along with an increase in total field strength to approximately 10 nT. Density began to decrease at approximately 30/1600Z while solar wind speeds continued to increase (reaching 700 km/s at the time of this report) indicating the transition from the CIR to the CH HSS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be unsettled to active during the next three days (01-03 July) with a chance for isolated minor storm periods due to effects from the favorably positioned CH HSS.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 124
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  014/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  015/018-013/015-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%35%35%

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