Viewing archive of Tuesday, 12 June 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1506 (N11E38), 1504
(S17E28), and 1507 (S27E02) were the most active regions on the
disk. Each region was responsible for multiple C-flares during the
period. The largest of these came from Region 1506 which produced a
C2 flare at 12/0315Z. All three of these regions have shown signs
of growth. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed during the
period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. There is a chance for an isolated M-class event from
Region 1504.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Minor
storm levels were reached from 11/2100Z to 12/0300Z. This was
followed by an active period from 12/0300Z to 12/0600Z. Solar wind
observations indicated a sustained interval of negative Bz from
11/1500Z to 12/0200Z with peak values around -10nT. In addition,
the data indicated a solar sector boundary crossing starting late on
the 11th.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (June 13). Quiet levels
are expected for 14-15 June.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 141 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 117
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 011/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 014/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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