Viewing archive of Friday, 13 April 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1455 (N07W19)
produced occasional B-class x-ray flares. It showed gradual spot and
penumbral growth during the period as well as a mix of polarities in
its intermediate and trailer portions, which indicated a beta-gamma
magnetic structure. New Region 1457 (N22E41) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low during days 1 - 3 (14 - 16 April) with a chance for isolated
C-class flares from Region 1455.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with a brief period of major storm at high latitudes. The increased
field activity was associated with a persistent coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar winds speeds gradually increased
during the first half of the period (maximum speed 693 km/s at
13/0846Z), then gradually decreased during the second half of the
period (minimum speed 544 km/s at 13/1941Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (14 -
15 April) with a chance for active levels due to persistent CH HSS
effects. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels on
day 3 (16 April) as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 098 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 114
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 011/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 007/012-010/012-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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