Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 March 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14W14) produced an M1/1f event at 0752Z associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 468 km/s) and a CME visible on STEREO Ahead and Behind. The geoeffectiveness of this CME is under review. Region 1432 has grown into an Esi type spot group with beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. New Region 1435 (S25W11) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels for the next three days with a slight chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1432.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels reaching up to severe storm levels at high latitudes. A sudden impulse was observed at 15/1309Z (27 nT, as measured by the Boulder magnetometer). ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 15/1240Z. Solar wind velocities increased to around 800 km/s following the shock. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 13/1810Z reached a maximum flux of 469 pfu at 13/2045Z and ended at 15/0620Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels and up to minor storm levels at high latitudes on 16 March due to the 13 March CME effects and the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Activity is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled conditions on 17 March and continue declining to mostly quiet conditions on 18 March as CME and CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton40%30%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 111
  Predicted    16 Mar-18 Mar  110/105/105
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  021/029
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  015/020-018/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 20%10%10%

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