Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 March 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1432 (N14W14)
produced an M1/1f event at 0752Z associated with a Type II radio
sweep (estimated velocity 468 km/s) and a CME visible on STEREO
Ahead and Behind. The geoeffectiveness of this CME is under review.
Region 1432 has grown into an Esi type spot group with beta-gamma
magnetic characteristics. New Region 1435 (S25W11) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low to moderate levels for the next three days with a slight
chance for an isolated X-class flare from Region 1432.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels reaching up
to severe storm levels at high latitudes. A sudden impulse was
observed at 15/1309Z (27 nT, as measured by the Boulder
magnetometer). ACE data indicated a shock arrival at 15/1240Z.
Solar wind velocities increased to around 800 km/s following the
shock. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 13/1810Z
reached a maximum flux of 469 pfu at 13/2045Z and ended at 15/0620Z.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels and up to minor storm
levels at high latitudes on 16 March due to the 13 March CME effects
and the arrival of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Activity is expected to decline to quiet to unsettled
conditions on 17 March and continue declining to mostly quiet
conditions on 18 March as CME and CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 111 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 021/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 015/020-018/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
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