Viewing archive of Friday, 20 January 2012

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low with no flares detected. Region 1401 (N15W01) showed intermediate spot development during the period and was classified as an Eki group with beta magnetic structure. Region 1402 (N28E03) showed no significant changes and was classified as a Dki group with beta magnetic structure. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low through the period (21 - 23 January) with a chance for an M-class flare from Region 1401 or 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and continued through the end of the period. The enhancement was associated with the long-duration M3/2n flare observed on 19 January.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
Class M45%45%45%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jan 141
  Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  001/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  004/005-010/010-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%15%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm01%20%25%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

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