Viewing archive of Friday, 20 January 2012
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2012 Jan 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2012IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low with no flares detected.
Region 1401 (N15W01) showed intermediate spot development during the
period and was classified as an Eki group with beta magnetic
structure. Region 1402 (N28E03) showed no significant changes and
was classified as a Dki group with beta magnetic structure. No new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
through the period (21 - 23 January) with a chance for an M-class
flare from Region 1401 or 1402.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. An enhancement of the greater than
10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began around 20/0800Z and
continued through the end of the period. The enhancement was
associated with the long-duration M3/2n flare observed on 19
January.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels during day 1 (21 January) and most of
day 2 (22 January). Field activity is expected to increase to
unsettled to active levels late on day 2 and day 3 (23 January) with
a chance for minor storm levels due to the arrival of the halo-CME
observed on 19 January. There will be a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jan 141 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 004/005-010/010-010/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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