Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 October 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Oct 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1324 (N12E55) produced three C-class events, the largest a C5 at 19/0455Z. The region has grown significantly in area and is considered an Fkc-type group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Region 1325 (N16E82) was numbered today and is an Hax-alpha region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (20-22 October) with a chance for M-class activity from Regions 1319 (N10W53) and 1324.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22 October).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Oct 147
  Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  145/150/150
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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