Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 September 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Sep 13 2235 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low during the period. Two C1 X-ray
flares were observed at 13/0419Z and 13/1801Z from Region 1296
(N23E59) and Region 1283 (N14, L=227) which rotated off the NW limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for isolated M-class flares for the period (14- 16
September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
minor to major levels between 13/0300 - 0900Z. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet levels for the period (14 - 16
September).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 129 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 017/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 013/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 008/012-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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