Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
1226 (S20W81) produced an isolated B-class flare. Region 1226
continued to gradually decay as it approached the west limb and was
classified as a 1-spot Axx type. The remaining numbered regions were
inactive. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low through the period (09 - 11 June).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to minor storm levels. Unsettled to
minor storm levels occurred during 07/2100 - 08/0600Z, associated
with elevated solar wind speeds combined with increased IMF Bt and
periods of southward IMF Bz. Mostly quiet conditions occurred after
08/0600Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
07/0820Z reached a maximum of 73 pfu at 07/1820Z and ended at
08/1710Z. The greater than 100 MeV event that began at 07/0735Z
reached a maximum of 4 pfu at 07/1025Z and ended at 08/0210Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on day 1 (09 June) due to
the arrival of the halo coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on 07
June. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day 2 (10 June)
with a chance for minor to major storm levels as CME effects
persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled
levels on day 3 (11 June) with a chance for active levels as CME
effects subside. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event at geosynchronous orbit on days 1 - 2 (09 - 10 June) due to
the arrival of the CME mentioned above.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jun 090 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 011/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 012/020-018/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun to 11 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
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