Viewing archive of Monday, 16 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region
1208 (N08W64) produced a C4 event at 15/2334Z. An associated CME was
first observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 16/0024Z and had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 250 km/s. It is not expected to be
geoeffective. New Region 1216 (S14E66) was numbered today and is
considered an Hsx group at this time.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (17-19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active
period at 15/1800Z due the effects of a recurrent coronal hole high
speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active
periods for day one (17 May). A decline from quiet to unsettled to
mostly quiet conditions is expected on days two and three (18-19
May) as the CH HSS gradually subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 092 Predicted 17 May-19 May 090/090/095 90 Day Mean 16 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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