Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1195 (S16W80) and 1199
(N20W74) produced a few C-class flares during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a chance for a M-class flare on days 1 and 2 (1-2 May), before
Regions 1195 and 1199 rotate off the disk. Low activity is expected
on day 3 (3 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm conditions
as the result of coronal hole (CH) high-speed stream (HSS) effects.
The solar wind speeds at the ACE spacecraft ranged between 640 km/s
and 700 km/s during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to active conditions with isolated
minor storms possible for days 1 and 2 (1-2 May). Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on day 3 (3 May), when CH HSS
effects begin to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Apr 110 Predicted 01 May-03 May 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 015/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 015/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May to 03 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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