Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated C-class
flares occurred, the largest of which was a C3 at 22/0337Z from
Region 1176 (S14E68). Region 1176 was a Dho-type spot group with a
beta magnetic configuration. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during days 1 - 3 (23 - 25 March) with a chance for an M-class flare
from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit that began at
21/1950Z reached a maximum flux of 14 pfu at 22/0130Z and ended at
22/0335Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day 1 (23 March). An
increase to quiet to unsettled levels is expected during days 2 - 3
(24 - 25 March) as a coronal hole high-speed stream disturbs the
field.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Mar 100 Predicted 23 Mar-25 Mar 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 22 Mar 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Mar 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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