Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 March 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1169 (N17W60) produced a M1 event at 15/0022Z. This region continues to maintain its beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1166 (N12W91 is making its transit around the west limb of the sun today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance of an M-class event from Region 1166 for the next two days (16-17 March). On day three (18 March) activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE spacecraft show solar wind velocities are averaging around 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (16-18 March).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
Class M40%30%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Mar 102
  Predicted   16 Mar-18 Mar  100/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Mar  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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