Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 March 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 072 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 1166 (N10W65) and 1169 (N20W34) have both produced C-class events. The daily consensus has Region 1166 as decreased in both white light areal coverage and sunspot count with a Ekc type spot group and a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1169 has maintained its area and spot count and is a simple beta magnetic classification with a Cro type spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The ACE spacecraft observed solar wind speeds during the past 24 hours averaging around 550 km/s with the interplanetary magnetic field Bz fluctuating between -4/+5 nT. Observations suggest that the earth is still under the influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active levels for day one (14 March). Days two and three (15-16 March) are expected to be predominately quiet as the effects from the coronal hole high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
Class M 40%20%20%
Class X 05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Mar 113
  Predicted    14 Mar-16 Mar  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        13 Mar 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%05%05%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%05%05%
Minor storm 10%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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