Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 050 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 1162 (N18W19)
produced an M1 event at 18/2104Z and several C-class events.
Regions 1158 (S19W78) and 1161 (N11W15) continued to produce C-class
events during the past 24 hours. NOTE: After further analysis based
on new images, the M6 event observed at 18/1011Z appears to have
originated from Region 1158 rather than Region 1162.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate for the next three days (20-22 February). All three
regions are capable of producing M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours
due to residual effects from the CMEs associated with the M and
X-class events observed 13-15 February. The ACE spacecraft
indicated a steady decline in solar wind velocities from
approximately 600 km/s to 400 km/s during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (20-22
February).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Feb 109 Predicted 20 Feb-22 Feb 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 19 Feb 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Feb 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Feb to 22 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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