Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 January 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 022 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1149 (N17W19) has grown in area and produced a C2 flare at 22/0828Z. Region 1147 (N24W22) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1149.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (23 - 25 January).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jan 088
  Predicted   23 Jan-25 Jan  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        22 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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