Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 September 2010

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Sep 19 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low with only B-class activity observed. Region 1106 (S20W34) and Region 1108 (S30E36) exhibited little change during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominately very low. A chance of C-class activity, with a slight chance of M-class activity, is possible for the next three days (20 - 22 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for day one (20 September). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active periods, are expected on day two (21 September). Mostly unsettled, with isolated active to minor storm levels, are expected on day three (22 September). The increase in activity is due to a large, recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 081
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  082/082/083
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  005/005-008/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%30%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm01%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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