Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 August 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Aug 24 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. No flares were observed during the period. New Region 1101
(N12E79) was numbered today and is magnetically classified as an
alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (25-27 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the
past 24 hours. The increased activity was associated with a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moving into
geoeffective position. ACE solar wind readings indicated an enhanced
interplanetary field (IMF) intensity (peak 22 nT at 2241Z) combined
with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection
-14 nT at 0104Z) with an increase in velocities from 358 km/s to 709
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 August),
at mostly unsettled levels on day two (26 August), and at quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 August) as the effects of the CH
HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 074 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 074/075/075 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 013/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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