Viewing archive of Friday, 12 February 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 12 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity ranged from low to high. At 12/0726Z,
Region 1046 (N24E13) produced an impulsive C7.9/1n flare with an
associated 140 sfu Tenflare. Four hours later, the region produced
the largest event of the period, an impulsive M8.3/1n flare with an
associated 350 sfu Tenflare. LASCO C2 and Stereo-B imagery depicted
a potentially geoeffective, asymmetrical, full-halo CME from this
event. Later in the period, Region 1045 (N28W53) produced a M1.1/2f
at 12/1808Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with M-class flares likely. A chance of high activity
exists for the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a brief period of
unsettled conditions from 12/03-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 February), returning
to quiet on day 2 (14 February), and unsettled to active with a
chance for minor storming on day 3 (15 February). The activity
forecasted is due to CME and expected coronal hole high speed stream
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Feb 096 Predicted 13 Feb-15 Feb 098/098/098 90 Day Mean 12 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb 008/010-005/007-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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