Viewing archive of Friday, 12 February 2010

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Feb 12 2201 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 043 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Feb 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity ranged from low to high. At 12/0726Z, Region 1046 (N24E13) produced an impulsive C7.9/1n flare with an associated 140 sfu Tenflare. Four hours later, the region produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive M8.3/1n flare with an associated 350 sfu Tenflare. LASCO C2 and Stereo-B imagery depicted a potentially geoeffective, asymmetrical, full-halo CME from this event. Later in the period, Region 1045 (N28W53) produced a M1.1/2f at 12/1808Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with M-class flares likely. A chance of high activity exists for the next 3 days (13-15 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with a brief period of unsettled conditions from 12/03-09Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day 1 (13 February), returning to quiet on day 2 (14 February), and unsettled to active with a chance for minor storming on day 3 (15 February). The activity forecasted is due to CME and expected coronal hole high speed stream effects.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Feb 096
  Predicted   13 Feb-15 Feb  098/098/098
  90 Day Mean        12 Feb 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Feb  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Feb-15 Feb  008/010-005/007-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Feb to 15 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%40%
Minor storm10%05%30%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%15%45%
Minor storm10%05%35%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%

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