Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 March 2009
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2009 Mar 14 2201 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2009IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar
wind velocity at ACE showed a gradual decrease from 550 to 530 km/s
as effects from a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream wane. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the forecast period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (15 - 17
March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 069 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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