Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 April 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 991 (S10E15)
decayed to a spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin mostly quiet, increasing to unsettled to active
on the second and third days of the forecast period as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. There is a
chance geomagnetic field activity will reach minor storm levels at
high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 071 Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 075/080/080 90 Day Mean 20 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 005/005-008/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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