Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 April 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Apr 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 991 (S10E15) decayed to a spotless plage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to begin mostly quiet, increasing to unsettled to active on the second and third days of the forecast period as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. There is a chance geomagnetic field activity will reach minor storm levels at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Apr 071
  Predicted   21 Apr-23 Apr  075/080/080
  90 Day Mean        20 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Apr  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr  005/005-008/008-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr to 23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%20%25%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%25%30%
Minor storm05%10%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%10%

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