Viewing archive of Monday, 24 March 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 24 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 987
(S08E36) has grown in area and spot number over the summary period.
New Region 988 (S09E59) was numbered today. Both of these regions
are D-type spot groups with beta magnetic configurations. Multiple
B-class events have occurred from these regions, as well as a region
that is on the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. There is a chance for isolated C-class
flares from Regions 987 and 988.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25
March). On days two and three (26 and 27 March) an increase to
unsettled to active levels is expected due to a coronal hole high
speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. During this
period isolated minor storm levels at middle latitudes and major
storm conditions at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 079 Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 080/080/085 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 010/010-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
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