Viewing archive of Monday, 24 March 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 24 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 987 (S08E36) has grown in area and spot number over the summary period. New Region 988 (S09E59) was numbered today. Both of these regions are D-type spot groups with beta magnetic configurations. Multiple B-class events have occurred from these regions, as well as a region that is on the east limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. There is a chance for isolated C-class flares from Regions 987 and 988.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 March). On days two and three (26 and 27 March) an increase to unsettled to active levels is expected due to a coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position. During this period isolated minor storm levels at middle latitudes and major storm conditions at high latitudes are possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 079
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  080/080/085
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  010/010-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%30%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm05%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%15%15%

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