Viewing archive of Friday, 14 March 2008

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Mar 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (15 March) in response to a slackening of the solar wind indicated by the STEREO Behind spacecraft. Quiet to unsettled levels return on days 2 and 3 (16-17 March) as the solar wind speeds approach 600 km/s.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 070
  Predicted    15 Mar-17 Mar  070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%30%30%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%40%40%
Minor storm 05%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%

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