Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 February 2008
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2008 Feb 26 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 057 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Feb 2008IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The only region on the
visible disk is Region 983 (S06W54).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (27 February).
Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and three
(28 - 29 February) with isolated minor storm levels possible at high
latitudes. The increase in activity is due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Feb 071 Predicted 27 Feb-29 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 26 Feb 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Feb-29 Feb 007/008-010/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Feb to 29 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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