Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 20 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled
to active levels prevailed from the beginning of the period through
1200Z, after which conditions declined to quiet to unsettled levels
through the end of the period. Real-time solar wind observations
from ACE show the continued presence of a recurrent high speed solar
wind stream; solar wind velocity varied between 600-680 km/s
throughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous altitude reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the first day
(21 October), although there is a chance for isolated active periods
early in the day due to persistence from the high speed stream.
Conditions are expected to be quiet for the second day (22 October)
and quiet to unsettled for the third day (23 October).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 067 Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 20 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 011/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 007/010-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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