Viewing archive of Saturday, 20 October 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 20 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours and the solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Unsettled to active levels prevailed from the beginning of the period through 1200Z, after which conditions declined to quiet to unsettled levels through the end of the period. Real-time solar wind observations from ACE show the continued presence of a recurrent high speed solar wind stream; solar wind velocity varied between 600-680 km/s throughout the day. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous altitude reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled for the first day (21 October), although there is a chance for isolated active periods early in the day due to persistence from the high speed stream. Conditions are expected to be quiet for the second day (22 October) and quiet to unsettled for the third day (23 October).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Oct 067
  Predicted   21 Oct-23 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        20 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  007/010-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct to 23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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