Viewing archive of Friday, 19 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 19 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed.
The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled during the past 24
hours. There was a period of active to minor storm levels from
15-18Z. Real-time solar wind data from ACE show the continuing
influence of a recurrent high speed stream throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storm periods for the next 24 hours (20 October). A decrease to
quiet to unsettled levels is expected for the second day (21
October) and mostly quiet levels should prevail for the third day
(22 October).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 067 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 012/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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