Viewing archive of Friday, 19 October 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 19 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The solar disk continues to be spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled during the past 24 hours. There was a period of active to minor storm levels from 15-18Z. Real-time solar wind data from ACE show the continuing influence of a recurrent high speed stream throughout the day.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods for the next 24 hours (20 October). A decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected for the second day (21 October) and mostly quiet levels should prevail for the third day (22 October).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Oct 067
  Predicted   20 Oct-22 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        19 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Oct  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct  012/015-007/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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