Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 October 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains
spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the summary period at quiet levels and
became briefly active between 09-12Z as a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream became geoeffective. Activity since 12Z has been
quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from unsettled to active for the next three days
under the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 068 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 010/015-012/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 26% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 14% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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