Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 October 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Oct 18 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the summary period at quiet levels and became briefly active between 09-12Z as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective. Activity since 12Z has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active for the next three days under the continued influence of the high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Oct 068
  Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  067/067/067
  90 Day Mean        18 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  000/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  010/015-012/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%26%15%
Minor storm15%14%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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