Viewing archive of Monday, 24 September 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Sep 24 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. The visible solar disk remains spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active with a period of minor storming observed at middle latitudes. An elevated solar wind speed due to a coronal hole high speed stream contributed to the activity. Solar wind speed remains elevated at approximately 620 km/s at the time of issue. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 25 September due to the ongoing coronal hole high speed stream. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions on 26 - 27 September.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 066
  Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  066/066/067
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  009/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  007/008-005/005-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%10%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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