Viewing archive of Tuesday, 28 August 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Aug 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Region 969 (S05W19)
is now a beta spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A transient
disruption in the solar wind occurred at approximately 0930 UTC.
This resulted in one period of minor storming at mid-latitudes and
one period of major storming at high-latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 29 August. There is a chance
for isolated active periods due to the continued influence of a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. The geomagnetic field is
expected to abate to quiet for 30 - 31 August.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 070 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 006/008-004/005-002/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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