Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 June 2007
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jun 02 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jun 2007IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 960
(S07E62) produced three M-class events; an M2.1/Sf at 01/2152 UTC,
an M2.5/Sf at 02/0611 UTC, and an M1.0 at 02/1035 UTC. This region
is classified as a beta gamma delta magnetic group with an area of
approximately 480 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels with a chance for an X-flare from Region 960.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 03 and 04 June as a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
Conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 05 June. Based
on the potential for significant flare activity from Region 960,
there is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Jun 083 Predicted 03 Jun-05 Jun 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 02 Jun 073
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jun 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Jun-05 Jun 010/015-010/015-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jun to 05 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
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