Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 January 2007

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2007 Jan 16 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 016 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 938 (N02E22) produced two C-class flares during the period. The largest was a C4/1n event occurring at 16/0242Z and a C1 event occurring later in the period at 16/1611Z. This region continues to show steady decay in sunspot area and exhibits a magnetic beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Region 938 continues to exhibit the potential for producing isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with occasional periods of active conditions on 17 and 18 January due to the high speed stream. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 19 January as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jan 079
  Predicted   17 Jan-19 Jan  080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        16 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan  014/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jan  012/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan  012/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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