Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 December 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 05 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was high. New Region 930 (S06E72)
produced an X9/2N flare at 05/1035Z. There was a Type II radio
sweep (estimated shock speed of 836 km/s) associated with this
flare, along with a Type IV sweep and a Tenflare. The flare was
observed on the east limb from GOES-12 SXI imagery. A CME was
probably associated with this event, however LASCO imagery was
unavailable to confirm this.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares.
In addition, there is a chance for another X-class flare from this
region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. However, a
solar sector boundary was seen at ACE beginning at about 05/1620Z,
and velocities were increasing at forecast issue time. GOES proton
data showed an enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons
beginning at 05/1530Z. The maximum flux observed so far was 3.2
PFU at 05/2050Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 6 December. Active to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are expected on 7-8
December due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Proton | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 102 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 100/105/105 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 015/015-025/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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