Viewing archive of Tuesday, 5 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 05 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was high. New Region 930 (S06E72) produced an X9/2N flare at 05/1035Z. There was a Type II radio sweep (estimated shock speed of 836 km/s) associated with this flare, along with a Type IV sweep and a Tenflare. The flare was observed on the east limb from GOES-12 SXI imagery. A CME was probably associated with this event, however LASCO imagery was unavailable to confirm this.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 930 is expected to produce M-class flares. In addition, there is a chance for another X-class flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. However, a solar sector boundary was seen at ACE beginning at about 05/1620Z, and velocities were increasing at forecast issue time. GOES proton data showed an enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons beginning at 05/1530Z. The maximum flux observed so far was 3.2 PFU at 05/2050Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on 6 December. Active to minor storm conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are expected on 7-8 December due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton35%20%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Dec 102
  Predicted    06 Dec-08 Dec  100/105/105
  90 Day Mean        05 Dec 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Dec  005/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  015/015-025/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%35%
Minor storm 15%25%20%
Major-severe storm 05%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%45%40%
Minor storm 20%30%20%
Major-severe storm 10%15%10%

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