Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 December 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Dec 03 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 926 (S10W25) produced two C1/Sf flares at 02/2207Z and 03/0325Z. This region remains a beta-gamma group. Region 927 (N08W21) was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the first two days (4-5 December). Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 6 December as a recurrent coronal hole rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Dec 087
  Predicted   04 Dec-06 Dec  085/090/090
  90 Day Mean        03 Dec 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec  001/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Dec  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec  005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm05%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%

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