Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 November 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Nov 25 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered
Region 926 (S08E71) is a magnetic Hkx alpha sunspot group that
rotated onto the visible disk during the period (old Region 921 S07
L=140). Several B-class flares were produced by this region earlier
in the period. Region 926 remains too close to the limb to
determine if a magnetic gamma structure exists.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels. Region 926 has the potential to produce
isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was ranged from quiet to minor storm levels
with a brief period of major storming at the higher latitudes
between 25/1200 and 1500Z. The elevated conditions are due to a
favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to isolated active levels on 26
November. Predominantly quiet levels are expected for the remainder
of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 079 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 010/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 008/015-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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