Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 28 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was very low. New Region 920 (S07W82)
was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to a geoeffective
coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed at ACE increased
from approximately 310 km/s to 540 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes on 29 October due to the continued
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 30 and 31 October.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Oct 075 Predicted 29 Oct-31 Oct 075/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct 008/010-004/005-002/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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