Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 October 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Oct 18 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. There are
no sunspots on the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to below
320 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with isolated unsettled periods on 19 October.
A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate
into a geoeffective position on 20 October, and produce active to
minor storm periods on both the 20th and 21st.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 070 Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 18 Oct 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 005/008-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct to 21 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 50% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 05% |
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