Viewing archive of Monday, 18 September 2006

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Sep 18 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 910 (S08E49) produced a C1 flare at 18/1945Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Two minor storm periods from 18/0000Z - 18/0600Z were likely the result of elevated solar wind speed from the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed remains elevated at time of issue at approximately 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for active periods on 19 September as the coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position. Expect mostly quiet conditions on 20 - 21 September.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Sep 074
  Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        18 Sep 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Sep  018/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  010/012-005/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep to 21 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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