Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 January 2006
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2006 Jan 01 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 001 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2006IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. An 8 nT sudden impulse was
observed at the Boulder magnetometer at 01/1406 UTC. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 087 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 008/010-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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