Viewing archive of Friday, 30 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 30 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 843 (N12E15) produced a
C1 flare at 29/2106 UTC. At 29/2118 UTC, LASCO C3 imagery showed a
partial halo CME. This CME seemed to originate from an eruptive
filament located southeast of center disk. The majority of the
ejecta appeared to be directed to the southeast.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 31 December. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 01 and 02 January due to the
possible arrival of the CME from 29 December.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 090 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 090/085/085 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 005/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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