Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 December 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 14 2203 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to two C-class flares. The first was a C1 at 13/2147Z from a region on the east limb near S11. The event was associated with a type II radio sweep and a limb CME. The second was a C1 at 14/1012Z from Region 836 (S10W52). This region was newly assigned late on the 13th and has been growing steadily. Region 835 (N18E15) is still the largest group on the disk but is slowly decaying. Another east limb CME was observed late in the day by the Mauna Loa and LASCO-C2 coronagraphs, beginning at about 14/1832Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the next three days (15-17 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 15 December and should be predominantly quiet for 16-17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Dec 090
  Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  090/090/085
  90 Day Mean        14 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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