Viewing archive of Wednesday, 14 December 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Dec 14 2203 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
two C-class flares. The first was a C1 at 13/2147Z from a region on
the east limb near S11. The event was associated with a type II
radio sweep and a limb CME. The second was a C1 at 14/1012Z from
Region 836 (S10W52). This region was newly assigned late on the 13th
and has been growing steadily. Region 835 (N18E15) is still the
largest group on the disk but is slowly decaying. Another east limb
CME was observed late in the day by the Mauna Loa and LASCO-C2
coronagraphs, beginning at about 14/1832Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the next three days (15-17 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 15 December and should be
predominantly quiet for 16-17 December.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 090 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 090/090/085 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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