Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 30 2207 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 806 (S17E37)
was responsible for all recorded flare activity today. The largest
event observed during the period was a C6/Sf flare occurring at
30/2155Z. This region remains a magnetically structured beta-gamma
group with little change seen in sunspot coverage from yesterday.
Region 803 (N11E01) continued to show signs of decay and was
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high level
again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 31 August. Active to
minor storming condition may be possible on 01 and 02 September due
to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 086 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 085/080/080 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 006/010-012/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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