Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 25 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 803 (N12E67) produced
an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0440 UTC. The event was associated with
a CME off the east limb. Region 800 (N17W35) is currently the
largest on the disk but was quiet and stable. New Region 804
(N11E12) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 800
or Region 803 during the next three days (26-28 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm
levels. Today's solar wind data was generally consistent with a
coronal hole stream: velocities were elevated and the magnetic field
indicated ongoing wave-like fluctuations. The speed gradually
declined from initial values around 730 km/s to day-end values
around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at
22/2040 UTC ended today at 25/0040 UTC. The peak flux was 330 PFU at
23/1045 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated
active periods for 26 August. Conditions should be generally
unsettled for 27-28 August.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 092 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 095/095/090 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 072/110 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 015/015-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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