Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 August 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 25 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 803 (N12E67) produced an impulsive M6/1n flare at 0440 UTC. The event was associated with a CME off the east limb. Region 800 (N17W35) is currently the largest on the disk but was quiet and stable. New Region 804 (N11E12) emerged on the disk today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 800 or Region 803 during the next three days (26-28 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm levels. Today's solar wind data was generally consistent with a coronal hole stream: velocities were elevated and the magnetic field indicated ongoing wave-like fluctuations. The speed gradually declined from initial values around 730 km/s to day-end values around 620 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/2040 UTC ended today at 25/0040 UTC. The peak flux was 330 PFU at 23/1045 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods for 26 August. Conditions should be generally unsettled for 27-28 August.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
Class M20%20%20%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Aug 092
  Predicted   26 Aug-28 Aug  095/095/090
  90 Day Mean        25 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug  072/110
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Aug  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug  015/015-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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