Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 23 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 798 (S12W75)
produced an M2/Sf flare at 23/1444 UTC. As in previous M flares in
this region, it was associated with significant radio output that
included type II/IV sweep activity and a CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 798 could produce another M-class flare as it
rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event remains in progress: start time 22/2040 UTC and
preliminary maximum of 330 pfu at 23/1045 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled until the arrival of the first CME
that occurred early on Aug 22. Storm conditions are possible on Aug
24 and 25 due to CME activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 30% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 90% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 112 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 105/100/090 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 007/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/030-020/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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