Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 August 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 23 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 798 (S12W75) produced an M2/Sf flare at 23/1444 UTC. As in previous M flares in this region, it was associated with significant radio output that included type II/IV sweep activity and a CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 798 could produce another M-class flare as it rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress: start time 22/2040 UTC and preliminary maximum of 330 pfu at 23/1045 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled until the arrival of the first CME that occurred early on Aug 22. Storm conditions are possible on Aug 24 and 25 due to CME activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M50%30%10%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton90%50%10%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 112
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug  105/100/090
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  007/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  020/030-020/030-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%60%60%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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