Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 August 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 13 2226 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and limbs were quiet during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels today. A solar sector boundary crossing was indicated by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 13/0800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active conditions may be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Aug 075
  Predicted    14 Aug-16 Aug  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        13 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  003/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  010/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  006/010-006/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm 05%05%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm 05%05%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%10%

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