Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 13 2226 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. The disk and
limbs were quiet during the period. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels today. A solar
sector boundary crossing was indicated by the ACE spacecraft at
approximately 13/0800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible late on 16 August due to the onset of a
recurrent coronal hole stream.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 075 Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 13 Aug 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/010-006/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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