Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 August 2005
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 06 2204 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2005IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 794 (S12W10) produced a
C1.1 flare at 05/2044 UTC. Region 792 (N10W41) has decayed into a
Cso group. Region 795 (N12E00) has developed into a Cso Beta group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storming was observed at high latitudes between 06/0000 - 1200
UTC. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a coronal hole high
speed stream beginning about 05/2200. The solar wind speed remains
elevated at approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor
storm conditions for the next three days (07-09 August).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Aug 093 Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug to 09 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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