Viewing archive of Tuesday, 2 August 2005

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Aug 02 2204 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 214 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity remained at moderate levels today. Region 794 (S11E47) produced the largest flare of the period, an M4/1n event that occurred at 02/1831Z. There was an associated Tenflare and a Type II Radio sweep. An associated CME on the east solar limb was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 02/1854Z and may have a weak geoeffective component. This region also produced multiple B and C-class flares during the period and underwent growth in both magnetic complexity and sunspot count since yesterday. Region 792 (N12E12) produced a C6/Sn at 02/2016Z, prior to this event activity was limited to minor B-class events. The delta structure in the northern portion of the spot cluster and the total sunspot area have shown decay during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels. Regions 792 and 794 have the potential of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 03 August. The CME activity from yesterday and today could lead to isolated minor storming conditions on 04 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return by 05 August.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
Class M70%70%70%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Aug 110
  Predicted   03 Aug-05 Aug  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        02 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug  018/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Aug  012/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug  005/005-015/020-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug to 05 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%35%15%
Minor storm05%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%35%20%
Minor storm05%25%05%
Major-severe storm01%15%01%

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