Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 790 (S10W80) produced an impulsive M1 x-ray flare at 16/0338Z. It was also the source for a very long duration C7 flare that occurred between 15/2010Z and 16/0005Z. A Type II radio sweep occurred in association with a C2 flare that occurred at 16/0714Z from Region 790, although LASCO imagery showed little associated CME activity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 790 remains capable of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. An active period occurred at the Boulder magnetometer between 16/0600 and 0900Z. A weak transient signature was observed at the ACE spacecraft near 16/0100Z with no significant geomagnetic effects resulting. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z, remains in-progress. The proton flux has been on a gradual decrease and was near 11 pfu at the end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated minor storm conditions may be possible with the onset of the anticipated transient from the CME activity that occurred on 14 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early in the period on 17 July.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
Class M15%05%01%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton99%15%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Jul 076
  Predicted   17 Jul-19 Jul  075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        16 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Jul  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul  010/012-005/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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