Viewing archive of Friday, 15 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 15 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N09, L=056) produced an impulsive M1 flare at 14/2257Z. Region 786 continues to be very active as it rotates around the west limb. It was the source of a very long duration C2 flare between 15/0943 - 1715Z. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb on LASCO imagery. Another flare and CME from this region was in progress at the time of issue. At 15/2100Z the flare was at the C3 x-ray level, and still increasing. A 280 sfu Tenflare was also observed with this event. Region 790 (S10W67) exhibited growth and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration during the period. It produced occasional low C-class x-ray flares. The rest of the visible disk and limb was stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 786 is still producing C-class activity from behind the west limb. Flare activity from this region will subside over the next day. Region 790 is expected to produce occasional C-class flares. Very low activity levels are possible on 18 July as this region rotates around the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to near 400 km/s. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began on 14/0245Z, had a peak flux of 134 pfu at 15/0345Z. The proton flux gradually decreased to near 60 pfu by the end of the period. The greater that 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. The CMEs associated with the major flare activity on 13 and 14 July, may generate active to minor geomagnetic storm periods on 16 and 17 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to persist through 16 July. A new influx of particles from today's CMEs may prolong the existing proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
Class M15%15%05%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton99%30%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Jul 087
  Predicted   16 Jul-18 Jul  085/080/080
  90 Day Mean        15 Jul 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Jul  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul  020/025-015/020-005/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul to 18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%40%20%
Minor storm30%20%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%45%25%
Minor storm35%25%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

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