Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 July 2005

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2005 Jul 07 2210 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, #Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. #

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 786 (N12W04) produced an M4.9/Sn flare at 07/1629 UTC. This event also had an associated 180 sfu Tenflare and a full halo CME, which was observed by LASCO imagery. Region 786 has grown in both white light area coverage and sunspot count, and has maintained its magnetic delta configuration. Two other events were observed by LASCO imagery earlier in the period. The first was a faint partial halo event which was first observed at 06/2126 UTC. Data for this event indicates it is probably a back-sided event and not Earth directed. The second event was a CME observed with a possible partial halo beginning around 07/1250 UTC. This event was likely associated with an 11 degree long disappearing filament centered at N07E00 between 07/1033 - 1148 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 786 is capable of producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of minor storm conditions. Activity is expected due to possible effects from the CME observed on 05 July, a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream, today's M4 halo CME, and the CME associated with the disappearing filament centered at N07E00.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
Class M 50%50%50%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Jul 125
  Predicted    08 Jul-10 Jul  120/120/115
  90 Day Mean        07 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jul  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Jul  005/007
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 Jul-10 Jul  015/025-020/030-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jul to 10 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%40%
Minor storm 20%25%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%10%

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